Chinese Investors Looking for Development Opportunities

As subscribers and daily readers of the Wall Street Journal (print and online) we found the following article extremely telling in light of our past success and current work focus:

Chinese Cash Pours into U.S. Real Estate

SF Dev

Site on San Francisco Bay reflects a move into new development, beyond buying existing commercial properties

Chinese developers are planning a $1 billion commercial project on this San Francisco Bay property. Photo: Greenland USA

By Eliot Brown – Aug. 30, 2016 11:02 a.m. ET

For eight years, a pair of local developers gradually readied a 42-acre strip of waterfront land 10 miles south of downtown San Francisco for a major project, steering it through local land-use approvals.

Now, a group of major Chinese developers is poised to do the heavy lifting. The venture of Greenland Holding Group, Ping An Trust and other investors paid $171 million last month for the site that juts into San Francisco Bay.

The new owners are planning a more than $1 billion development aimed at biotechnology companies, an industry flourishing in the area. “We are pretty confident about the local market and particularly about the research-and-development market,” said Taotao Song, chief executive of the venture.

Over the past three years, Chinese investors have plowed money into some of the highest-profile developments in the U.S. Other cities with projects underway or in the pipeline include New York, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami.

graph of Chinese money flow

The flow of cash from China into U.S. commercial property is continuing unabated as companies seek to diversify outside of China at a time when confidence is fading in their local real-estate markets, real-estate executives say.

President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has also compelled Chinese investors to seek projects abroad as a way to hedge against a possible crackdown to their business at home. Officials have blocked property sales and detained companies’ executives during investigations.

In the first half of 2016, completed U.S. commercial property purchases by China-based investors were up 19% over a year earlier to $5 billion, according to data tracker Real Capital Analytics Inc. Including deals under contract that haven’t been finished, Chinese investors have committed $12.9 billion this year, nearly matching the $14 billion in all of 2015. The rate of increase does appear to be slower this year, given that in 2014 there was just $3.4 billion in sales to Chinese investors, according to Real Capital.

Investments include office towers such as Manhattan’s 1285 Avenue of the Americas—in which China Life LFC -2.02 % Insurance Co. bought a partial stake—and Anbang Insurance Group Co.’s $6.5 billion deal to buy Strategic Hotels & Resorts Inc., which hasn’t closed. Anbang also led an aborted $14 billion purchase of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. HOT -0.37 %

Still, there are some headwinds back home for Chinese investors as officials seek ways to stanch the flow of money out of China. For those real-estate investors that do get money out, developing new buildings is a main focus, given that it offers far higher returns but also more risk than buying existing buildings.

“The vast majority are looking for development opportunities,” said Stephen Collins, who oversees a global capital markets group at real-estate investment-services company JLL. The Chinese companies have experience with development at home, and believe they “can make more money buying the land, building it and selling it,” than just buying an existing tower, he said.

Projects controlled or partly owned by Chinese companies include a development to create Chicago’s third-tallest tower; a planned tower that would be San Francisco’s second-tallest building; a cluster of giant mixed-use projects in downtown Los Angeles; and a planned skyscraper in downtown Boston by Chinese developer  Gemdale Corp. 600383 3.62 %

Earlier this month, in one of the flashiest investments yet, China’s Shanghai Municipal Investment said it was joining with New York-based Extell Development Co. to build the $3 billion Central Park Tower. The condo skyscraper is set to rise 300 feet taller than the Empire State Building to become the tallest apartment tower in the U.S.

LA Dev

A rendering of Greenland Group’s $1 billion Metropolis development in Los Angeles. Photo: Greenland USA

For all of these projects, a big risk is timing. The U.S. is seven years into an economic growth cycle, making many wonder how much longer the good times can last. Much of this concern is focused on Manhattan’s luxury-condo market, where Chinese companies have funded a large crop of towers that are just being built, despite a slowdown in sales and widespread concerns about a condo glut.

The largest Chinese developer in the U.S. is Greenland Group, which has a $1 billion cluster of towers named Metropolis being built in Los Angeles. The company also owns 70% of a $6 billion apartment development in the New York borough of Brooklyn, where three towers have sprouted since it first invested in 2014. More are on the way.

Greenland executives predicted in mid-2014 that they would double their pipeline within a year and have considered numerous sites throughout the country. But the company ended up being less active than expected: its first U.S. deal since mid-2014 was the San Francisco Bay site it purchased for the biotech center.

The seller of that site was a venture of Shorenstein Properties and SKS Partners, which bought it in July 2008 for $85 million and won city approval for a 2.3 million-square-foot development.

Greenland and its partners plan to start moving ahead on a 500,000-square-foot first phase as soon as infrastructure work being done by the city of South San Francisco is completed in mid-2018. Greenland said the venture would begin construction whether or not any of the space is leased beforehand.

—Esther Fung contributed to this article.

Original Source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-cash-pours-into-u-s-real-estate-1472569340

 

The Value of Competition

Rock Bottom Lake Racers (2)

What is the value of competition? Is it the acquisition of a prize, like Olympic gold or the praise of fans and friends? While completion may provide some incentive through the lure of winning something, it seems the real value is in the physical, mental and emotional strength developed in us as we discipline ourselves to push toward achieving a goal. Having someone to work with or compete against provides an extra push and gives us a measure of our level of engagement within a social setting.

Life is full of opportunities to compete, not only in sporting activities, but also in every activity throughout our day. Can we be aware enough of our actions to gauge if we are improving how we function? While it is fine, and even necessary to relax and enjoy the ride in resting intervals to regain our strength, finding the next level of our capacity can be greatly rewarding as we increase our strength, and even amplify the bond we have with others.

I was having these thoughts about competition yesterday morning while enjoying the ten minute rural commute to my office in Duvall. All of a sudden, I focused on a truck in front of me that I had just caught up with at the stoplight entering town. I was blown away by the message on the rear door and grabbed my phone to take a quick photo (below) while stopped behind it. This was just too weird, considering where my mind had been for the past ten minutes before seeing the truck (and I drive a Jeep by the way). I’m pretty sure it was a coincidence…but I had to consider other options. In any case, Bam, a life message right in my face.

Compete 2

Do you have a competition specialty? If not, perhaps today is a good time to get in a game…you’ll be stronger in many ways for making the effort, and you might have some fun and even make some friends. Come on, I dare you! Join me, because I’ve decided to find a game today. Let our games begin, and don’t forget to enjoy the ride!

Home Values 77 Percent Higher in Zip Codes With Good Schools…

(Aug 3, 2016) ATTOM Data Solutions, released its 2016 Schools and Housing Report, which shows that homes in zip codes with at least one good elementary school have higher values and stronger home price appreciation over the long-term than homes in zip codes without any good elementary schools — where homes lost more value during the housing downturn but have seen stronger appreciation during the housing recovery of the last five years.

For the report, ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed 2016 home values and price appreciation along with 2015 average test scores in 18,968 elementary schools nationwide in 4,435 zip codes with a combined 45.9 million single family homes and condos. For purposes of this report, a good school was defined as any with an overall test score at least one-third above the state average (see full methodology below).

Out of 1,661 zip codes with at least one good school, the average estimated home value as of July 2016 was $427,402, 77 percent higher than the average home value of $241,096 in 2,774 zip codes without any good schools.

“While good schools are one of the top items on most home-buyer checklists because of the quality-of-life benefit they provide, this report shows that high-performing schools also come with a financial benefit for homeowners in most markets — at least over the long term,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Meanwhile, home prices in zip codes without any good schools tend to be more volatile, which might work to a homeowner’s financial benefit in the short-term but not over the long-term of at least 10 years.”

83 percent of metro areas post higher home values in zips with good schools

Out of 173 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for the report, 143 metros (83 percent) had higher average home values in zip codes with good schools than in zip codes without good schools, including Los Angeles (65 percent higher); Chicago (65 percent higher); Atlanta (91 percent higher); New York (52 percent higher); and Miami (31 percent higher).

Metro areas where home values in zip codes with at least one good school were at least 95 percent higher than home values in zip codes without any good schools included Birmingham, Alabama (169 percent higher); Flint, Michigan (129 percent higher); and St. Louis (99 percent higher); Detroit (97 percent higher); and Baltimore (95 percent higher).

“In my experience, buyers will almost always choose to buy a home in a good school district. In turn, this creates greater demand for homes in high-performing school districts and causes these sub-markets to appreciate in value at higher rates than other neighborhoods,” said Matthew Gardner, covering the Seattle market — where average home values were 64 percent higher in zip codes with goods schools than in zip codes without good schools. “Interestingly, we see demand for these homes from buyers without school-aged children as well because they look at the school district as an added layer of protection should home prices start to soften.

Homeowners gained $51K more since purchase in zips with good schools

Homeowners in zip codes with at least one good school have gained an average of $74,716 in value since purchase, an average return on investment of 32.0 percent. Meanwhile homeowners in zip codes without any good schools have gained an average of $23,311 in value since purchase, an average return on investment of 27.5 percent.

Average ROI for homeowners was higher in zip codes with at least one good school than in zip codes without any good schools in 114 of the 173 metro areas analyzed for the report (66 percent), including Chicago, Atlanta, New York, Miami and San Francisco. Notable exceptions where homeowner ROI was higher in zip codes without any good schools included Los Angeles, Riverside-San Bernardino in Southern California, Sacramento, Orlando and Washington, D.C.

Home price appreciation more volatile in zips without good schools

The report also found that home price appreciation has been more volatile in zip codes without any good schools over the past decade compared to zips with at least one good school.

Year-to-date 2016 median home prices in zip codes without any good schools on average are still 1 percent below median home prices during the same time period in 2006, while median home prices in zip codes with at least one good school are up 4.5 percent on average compared to 10 years ago.

10-year home price appreciation in zip codes with good schools outpaced 10-year HPA in zip codes without good schools in 128 of the 173 metro areas analyzed for the report (74 percent), including Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, New York and Miami.

Meanwhile, home prices in zip codes without good schools dropped more precipitously during the housing downturn. Between 2006 and 2011 median home prices in zip codes without any good schools decreased an average of 28.9 percent while median home prices in zip codes with at least one good school decreased 23.0 percent during the same time period.

Home price appreciation in zip codes without any good schools has outpaced HPA in zip codes with at least one good school over the past five years during the real estate recovery (47.9 percent increase versus 42.2 percent increase respectively).

Ranking of “Good School Bargain” zip codes

The report also ranked 117 zip codes as “Good School Bargains.” All of these zip codes had at least one good school along with a year-to-date 2016 median home sales price of $150,000 or lower. School scores and home prices have improved compared to one year ago and five years ago in all of these zip codes, with the ranking based on 10-year home price appreciation, from lowest to highest (lowest indicating the best bargain relative to the peak).

The Top 10 zip codes with good schools that represent the best bargain home buying opportunities nationwide include zips in Chicago; Cleveland; Saginaw, Michigan; Milwaukee; Tampa-St. Petersburg; Orlando; Las Vegas; Homosassa Springs, Florida; and Riverside-San Bernardino, California.

Report methodology
For this analysis ATTOM Data Solutions (parent company of RealtyTrac) looked at test scores for 18,968 elementary schools nationwide in 4,435 zip codes with a combined 45.9 million single family homes and condos. School test scores are from each state’s Department of Education in 2015. Test scores are based around the test average of each state with the state average being a score of 1. For purposes of this report, a good school was defined as any with an overall test score at least one-third above the state average (1.33 or higher). The highest scoring school in each zip code was used for the zip code analysis. Home value and median price data is from publicly recorded sales deeds and mortgages for single family homes and condos. Home value data is as of July 2016, and median home prices are based on January to June 2016 sales compared to the same time period in previous years.

63 markets have reached new all-time home price peaks.

July 28, 2016 — ATTOM Data Solutions (the new parent company of RealtyTrac), the nation’s leading source for comprehensive housing data, today released its June and Q2 2016 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that single family homes and condos sold for a median price of $231,000 in June 2016, up 6 percent from the previous month and up 9 percent from a year ago to a new all-time high — 1 percent above the previous peak of $228,000 in July 2005.

June was the 52nd consecutive month were U.S. median home prices increased on a year-over-year basis.

The ATTOM Data Solutions home sales report is based on publicly recorded sales deeds collected and licensed by ATTOM Data Solutions in more than 900 counties nationwide accounting for more than 80 percent of the U.S. population.

30 percent of local metro markets reach new all-time price peak in June

Out of 130 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for the report, 39 (30 percent) reached new all-time home price peaks in June, including Dallas ($240,156), Atlanta ($192,000), Seattle ($385,000), Minneapolis ($235,950), and St. Louis ($190,209).

“Home prices in the greater Seattle area continue to appreciate above average rates. This is clearly an indication of not only continued faith in the housing market, but also the buoyancy of the regional economy,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “However, this appreciation comes at a cost.  Housing affordability in the region is getting tested — specifically in the market areas that are within easy reach of the major employment centers. This is having particularly negative effects on first-time buyers who are getting priced out of the market. Unless we see a rapid increase in the number of homes for sale, this significant demographic will continue to be left behind.”

Home Prices

Since the nation’s home prices bottomed out in 2012, a total of 63 of the 130 markets analyzed (48 percent) have reached new all-time home price peaks.

“The all-time home price highs nationwide and in many local markets are being enabled by historically low mortgage rates — which are falling once again this year,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions (formerly RealtyTrac). “It is likely that some of the most interest rate sensitive local markets will see home price appreciation knocked down when the low rate rug is finally pulled out from under the housing recovery. We are seeing signs of weakening appreciation in many bellwether markets already in spite of the rock-bottom rates.”